UPDATED:

November 2, 2026

Sahil Shukla Predicts The Election. (Midterms Edition!)

How I built the model ↗

Senate

Chance of Senate majority
VERY LIKELY LIKELY LEANING TOSSUP LEANING LIKELY VERY LIKELY Democrats and independents: 80.5% chance of Senate control
Dem. + Ind. 80.5%
Chance of winning the Senate
Seats in contention
Maine
is the Democratic tipping point state
54 Democrats + independents
46 Republicans
34 Democrats and independents not up for election 50 31 Republicans not up for election
Democratic Republican Independent No election Flip
Senate seats across simulations 75,000 simulations · each dot up to 250 results
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Median: 53 D+I 80% range: 49–57 D+I 64 D+I 60 D+I 55 D+I 50–50 55 R 60 R
Democrats + independents control (51+) Republicans control (50+) A lighter dot represents fewer than 250 results.
Best Democratic simulation 64 D + I · 36 R
Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola (DEM) Alabama Senate: Barry Moore (REP) Arkansas Senate: Tom Cotton (REP) Arizona: no Senate election California: no Senate election Colorado Senate: John Hickenlooper (DEM) Connecticut: no Senate election District of Columbia: no Senate election Delaware Senate: Chris Coons (DEM) Florida Senate: Angie Nixon (DEM) Georgia Senate: Jon Ossoff (DEM) Hawaii: no Senate election Iowa Senate: Josh Turek (DEM) Idaho Senate: Todd Achilles (IND) Illinois Senate: Juliana Stratton (DEM) Indiana: no Senate election Kansas Senate: Adam Hamilton (DEM) Kentucky Senate: Charles Booker (DEM) Louisiana Senate: Jamie Davis (DEM) Massachusetts Senate: Ed Markey (DEM) Maryland: no Senate election Maine Senate: Troy D. Jackson (DEM) Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (DEM) Minnesota Senate: Peggy Flanagan (DEM) Missouri: no Senate election Mississippi Senate: Scott Colom (DEM) Montana Senate: Kurt Alme (REP) North Carolina Senate: Roy Cooper (DEM) North Dakota: no Senate election Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (REP) New Hampshire Senate: Chris Pappas (DEM) New Jersey Senate: Cory Booker (DEM) New Mexico Senate: Ben Ray Luján (DEM) Nevada: no Senate election New York: no Senate election Ohio Senate: Sherrod Brown (DEM) Oklahoma Senate: Kevin Hern (REP) Oregon Senate: Jeff Merkley (DEM) Pennsylvania: no Senate election Rhode Island Senate: Jack Reed (DEM) South Carolina Senate: Annie Andrews (DEM) South Dakota Senate: Brian L Bengs (IND) Tennessee Senate: Marquita Bradshaw (DEM) Texas Senate: JAMES TALARICO (DEM) Utah: no Senate election Virginia Senate: Mark Warner (DEM) Vermont: no Senate election Washington: no Senate election Wisconsin: no Senate election West Virginia Senate: Rachel Fetty Anderson (DEM) Wyoming Senate: James W. Byrd (DEM)
Best Republican simulation 40 D + I · 60 R
Alaska Senate: Dan S. Sullivan (REP) Alabama Senate: Barry Moore (REP) Arkansas Senate: Tom Cotton (REP) Arizona: no Senate election California: no Senate election Colorado Senate: Mark Baisley (REP) Connecticut: no Senate election District of Columbia: no Senate election Delaware Senate: Michael Katz (REP) Florida Senate: Ashley Moody (REP) Georgia Senate: Jon Ossoff (DEM) Hawaii: no Senate election Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson (REP) Idaho Senate: Jim Risch (REP) Illinois Senate: Juliana Stratton (DEM) Indiana: no Senate election Kansas Senate: Roger Marshall (REP) Kentucky Senate: Andy Barr (REP) Louisiana Senate: Julia Letlow (REP) Massachusetts Senate: Ed Markey (DEM) Maryland: no Senate election Maine Senate: Susan M. Collins (REP) Michigan Senate: Mike Rogers (REP) Minnesota Senate: Michele Tafoya (REP) Missouri: no Senate election Mississippi Senate: Cindy Hyde-Smith (REP) Montana Senate: Kurt Alme (REP) North Carolina Senate: Michael Whatley (REP) North Dakota: no Senate election Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (REP) New Hampshire Senate: John E. Sununu (REP) New Jersey Senate: Justin Murphy (REP) New Mexico Senate: Ben Ray Luján (DEM) Nevada: no Senate election New York: no Senate election Ohio Senate: Jon Husted (REP) Oklahoma Senate: Kevin Hern (REP) Oregon Senate: Jeff Merkley (DEM) Pennsylvania: no Senate election Rhode Island Senate: Jack Reed (DEM) South Carolina Senate: Darline Graham (REP) South Dakota Senate: Mike Rounds (REP) Tennessee Senate: Bill Hagerty (REP) Texas Senate: KEN PAXTON (REP) Utah: no Senate election Virginia Senate: Bert Mizusawa (REP) Vermont: no Senate election Washington: no Senate election Wisconsin: no Senate election West Virginia Senate: Shelley Moore Capito (REP) Wyoming Senate: Harriet Hageman (REP)

House

Chance of House majority
VERY LIKELY LIKELY LEANING TOSSUP LEANING LIKELY VERY LIKELY Democrats: 85.8% chance of House majority
Dem. 85.8%
Chance of winning the House
National popular vote
R+15 R+10 R+5 0 D+5 D+10 D+15
Dem. +8.3
Estimated two-party margin, in percentage points
95% range: D+0.4 to D+16.2
240 Democrats
195 Republicans
All 435 seats are up for election 218 for majority
Democratic Republican Independent Flip vs 2024 seat
House seats across simulations 75,000 simulations · each dot up to 35 results
0 500 1,000 1,500 Median: 240 D 80% range: 213–268 D 330 320 300 280 260 240 218 200 180 160 146 Democratic seats
Democratic majority (218+) Republican majority (218+) Neither party has a majority A lighter dot represents fewer than 35 results.

Gubernatorial

21 Democrats
15 Republicans
36 states elect a governor in 2026 14 states do not elect a governor
Democratic Republican Independent No election Flip vs previous election